Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (54%) · Raptors at 54¢ · $105K held · ends Nov 10

Grizzlies47¢Raptors53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$104.7K

Combined PnL

$32.27

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies47%

Raptors54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies6 traders

Total Value$48.0K

Total Shares103,299

Combined PnL-$470.14

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$56.0K

Total Shares104,497

Combined PnL+$502.41

Grizzlies — 46%Raptors — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raptors) and the top 1000 (9 on Grizzlies) disagree here.

ctrGrizzlies 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$47.0K	$46.5K	-$500	0% 0-105 (105)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Raptorsavg 53¢	$23.4K	$23.6K	+$220.3	3% 4-156 (160)
nigiri99	Raptorsavg 53.1¢	$19.5K	$19.7K	+$156.06	42% 28-38 (66)
HO HomeRunHazard	Raptorsavg 53¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$77.76	30% 29-67 (96)
HI hi774c	Raptorsavg 53¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$42.2	3% 9-250 (259)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.97	40% 333-506 (839)
VeryLucky888	Raptorsavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10	48% 61-65 (126)
RN1ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 54.5¢	$507.5	$500	-$7.5	54% 235-203 (438)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 54.5¢	$272.5	$267.5	-$5
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$235	$232.5	-$2.5
LI LimousinCTR	Grizzliesavg 42.1¢	$107.52	$118.8	+$11.28	24% 90-284 (374)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 52.3¢	$178.69	$101	+$1.81	49% 388-405 (793)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 52.3¢	$52.33	$52.55	+$1.3
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$47.94	$48.45	+$0.51
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 62.2¢	$25.3	$21.37	-$3.93	48% 174-190 (364)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 42¢	$9.35	$10.57	+$1.22	25% 88-264 (352)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 38.2¢	$21.68	$10.3	+$2.01	24% 84-270 (354)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Raptorsavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.63	+$0.03	19% 44-191 (235)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$5	$2.38	+$0.38	26% 89-254 (343)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$47,000

Value

$46.5K

PnL

-$500

Record

0-105 (105)

Multicoloured-Serf

Raptors

Invested

$23,351.8

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$220.3

Record

4-156 (160)

nigiri99

Raptors

Invested

$19,506.8

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$156.06

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

HomeRunHazard

Raptors

Invested

$7,108.57

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$77.76

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

hi774c

Raptors

Invested

$4,473

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$42.2

Record

9-250 (259)

BreakTheBankCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,377.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.97

Record

40%

333-506 (839)

VeryLucky888

Raptors

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

RN1ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$507.5

Value

$500

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

Both legs:

Raptors$272.554.5¢-$5

Grizzlies$23547¢-$2.5

LimousinCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$107.52

Value

$118.8

PnL

+$11.28

Record

24%

90-284 (374)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$178.69

Value

$101

PnL

+$1.81

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Both legs:

Raptors$52.3352.3¢+$1.3

Grizzlies$47.9447¢+$0.51

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$25.3

Value

$21.37

PnL

-$3.93

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$9.35

Value

$10.57

PnL

+$1.22

Record

25%

88-264 (352)

VenusianCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$21.68

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$2.01

Record

24%

84-270 (354)

ameisgoat11<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raptors) and the top 1000 (9 on Grizzlies) disagree here.

ctrGrizzlies 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.