Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Raptors — but Grizzlies won instead.
Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)
Resolved Grizzlies. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Raptors. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Raptors 86%
4 arb excluded
$3.4K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Grizzliesavg 20.4¢ | $2.3K | $1.8K | +$1.1K | 53% 330-294 (624) |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 20.4¢ | $375.4 | $1.8K | +$1.5K | |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 76.7¢ | $320.23 | — | -$320.26 | |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Raptorsavg 76¢ | $684.33 | — | -$520.09 | 57% 104-80 (184) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Raptorsavg 80¢ | $1.5K | — | -$438.1 | 53% 214-189 (403) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Raptorsavg 68.9¢ | $481.13 | — | -$405.13 | 43% 131-176 (307) |
AN Anon455CTR | Raptorsavg 81¢ | $405 | — | -$405 | 48% 86-95 (181) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 81¢ | $362.13 | $250 | -$92.81 | 49% 427-449 (876) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 81¢ | $279.45 | — | -$282.81 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 24¢ | $60 | $250 | +$190 | |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Raptorsavg 85¢ | $288.69 | — | -$288.69 | 2% 10-395 (405) |
MA MadridTime | Grizzliesavg 19¢ | $167.98 | $908 | +$740.02 | 26% 121-344 (465) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 68¢ | $208.88 | $227 | +$66.81 | 52% 287-270 (557) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 68¢ | $103.45 | — | -$103.45 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 24¢ | $54.48 | $227 | +$170.25 | |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 78¢ | $178.9 | $172 | -$6.9 | 22% 84-295 (379) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 78¢ | $125.58 | — | -$125.58 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 31¢ | $53.32 | $172 | +$118.68 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 79.1¢ | $37.46 | — | -$27.45 | 49% 193-198 (391) |
Invested
$2,259.4
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
53%
330-294 (624)
Both legs:
Invested
$684.33
Value
—
PnL
-$520.09
Record
57%
104-80 (184)
Invested
$1,481.52
Value
—
PnL
-$438.1
Record
53%
214-189 (403)
Invested
$481.13
Value
—
PnL
-$405.13
Record
43%
131-176 (307)
Invested
$405
Value
—
PnL
-$405
Record
48%
86-95 (181)
Invested
$362.13
Value
$250
PnL
-$92.81
Record
49%
427-449 (876)
Both legs:
Invested
$288.69
Value
—
PnL
-$288.69
Record
2%
10-395 (405)
Invested
$167.98
Value
$908
PnL
+$740.02
Record
26%
121-344 (465)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$208.88
Value
$227
PnL
+$66.81
Record
52%
287-270 (557)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.9
Value
$172
PnL
-$6.9
Record
22%
84-295 (379)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.46
Value
—
PnL
-$27.45
Record
49%
193-198 (391)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375
CTRRaptors — $0
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
CTRRaptors — $0
6512395314597884
CTRRaptors — $0
Anon455
CTRRaptors — $0
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
darkumbreon88
CTRRaptors — $0
MadridTime
Grizzlies — $908
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
takeormake
ARBArbitrage — excluded