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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 216.5

Resolved Over. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Under 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$275.52

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,048

Combined PnL-$629.13

Over3 traders

Total Value$675.49

Total Shares675

Combined PnL+$353.61

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 51.8¢	$614.43	$325.79	-$288.63	47% 11568-12989 (24557)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.8¢	$471.8	—	-$471.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.8¢	$142.63	$325.79	+$183.16
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.2K	—	-$615.1	51% 25463-24164 (49627)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 46.7¢	$499.2	$499.2	+$266.2	53% 12084-10599 (22683)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$869.4	$245.33	+$41.77	48% 60543-65164 (125707)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.4¢	$89.23	$245.33	+$156.09
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$114.31	—	-$114.32
TA takeormake	Overavg 56¢	$83.98	$150.07	+$66.09	53% 4842-4378 (9220)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$142	$42	-$32.52	48% 7251-7943 (15194)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$51	—	-$51
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$23.52	$42	+$18.48
PA Pan9X	Overavg 35.9¢	$108.8	$26.22	+$21.32	50% 4375-4378 (8753)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$10.8	—	-$6.53	48% 5389-5891 (11280)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$15	—	-$7.5	60% 2581-1695 (4276)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$614.43

Value

$325.79

PnL

-$288.63

Record

47%

11568-12989 (24557)

Both legs:

Under$471.851.8¢-$471.8

Over$142.6343.8¢+$183.16

Invested

$1,214.15

Value

—

PnL

-$615.1

Record

51%

25463-24164 (49627)

Invested

$499.2

Value

$499.2

PnL

+$266.2

Record

53%

12084-10599 (22683)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$869.4

Value

$245.33

PnL

+$41.77

Record

48%

60543-65164 (125707)

Both legs:

Over$89.2336.4¢+$156.09

Under$114.3148.6¢-$114.32

Invested

$83.98

Value

$150.07

PnL

+$66.09

Record

53%

4842-4378 (9220)

GaditimaARB<$100

Invested

$142

Value

$42

PnL

-$32.52

Record

48%

7251-7943 (15194)

Both legs:

Under$5151¢-$51

Over$23.5256¢+$18.48

Invested

$108.8

Value

$26.22

PnL

+$21.32

Record

50%

4375-4378 (8753)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

—

PnL

-$6.53

Record

48%

5389-5891 (11280)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$7.5

Record

60%

2581-1695 (4276)

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe9bf0c56...3c3b06

Slug

nba-lal-sac-2026-11-04-total-216pt5

Traders in this Market

topdogbigboi

Arbitrage — excluded

Flaznorp

Under — $0

justaluckydude

Over — $499.2

38791873984189

Arbitrage — excluded

takeormake

Over — $150.07

Gaditima

Arbitrage — excluded

Pan9X

Over — $26.22

SlickRick123

Under — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under — $0

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