Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 232.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 64¢ · $590 held · ended Nov 15

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$590.42

Combined PnL

$29.53

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 64¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$374.84

Total Shares524

Combined PnL+$15.81

Over4 traders

Total Value$215.58

Total Shares524

Combined PnL+$13.72

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 61¢	$261.95	$213.25	+$10.8	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 39¢	$144.16	$144.16	-$0	49% 497-511 (1008)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 62.5¢	$132.58	$137.78	+$5.2	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$53.32	$67.01	+$13.69	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 63¢	$16.38	$16.38	-$0	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 65¢	$6.5	$6.3	-$0.2	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.53	$2.56	+$0.03	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.85	+$0	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.14	+$0.01	50% 4064-4063 (8127)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$261.95

Value

$213.25

PnL

+$10.8

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$144.16

Value

$144.16

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$132.58

Value

$137.78

PnL

+$5.2

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.32

Value

$67.01

PnL

+$13.69

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$16.38

Value

$16.38

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.