Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 12 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 225.5

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 49¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

Total Value

$46.8K

Combined PnL

$186.21

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 49¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares31,321

Combined PnL+$7.5

Under12 traders

Total Value$30.2K

Total Shares63,215

Combined PnL+$178.71

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	Overavg 53¢	$16.3K	$16.3K	+$0	42% 13-18 (31)
TM TMingchanCTR	Underavg 48¢	$9.6K	$10.1K	+$500	37% 25-43 (68)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47.6¢	$7.5K	$7.4K	-$13.54	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 47¢	$5.6K	$5.2K	-$355.89	52% 2703-2514 (5217)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 47¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$41.74	48% 722-769 (1491)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$1.49	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$951.49	$941.25	-$10.24	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
NO NotJump	Overavg 50¢	$642.5	$305.01	+$7.5	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47¢	$295.93	$299.07	+$3.15	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Underavg 48¢	$241	$253.55	+$12.55	55% 84-70 (154)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$46.56	$46	-$0.56	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$19	$19	+$0	56% 693-539 (1232)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$5.76	$5.7	-$0.06	52% 420-389 (809)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.53	+$0.07	41% 1218-1750 (2968)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740

Over

Invested

$16,321.78

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

TMingchanCTR

Under

Invested

$9,600

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$500

Record

37%

25-43 (68)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$7,455.74

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$13.54

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$5,575.67

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$355.89

Record

52%

2703-2514 (5217)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$3,924

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$41.74

Record

48%

722-769 (1491)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,941.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.49

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$951.49

Value

$941.25

PnL

-$10.24

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

NotJump

Over

Invested

$642.5

Value

$305.01

PnL

+$7.5

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$295.93

Value

$299.07

PnL

+$3.15

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Under

Invested

$241

Value

$253.55

PnL

+$12.55

Record

55%

84-70 (154)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.56

Value

$46

PnL

-$0.56

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19

Value

$19

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

420-389 (809)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.07

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.