Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 220.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over75¢Under25¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$7.23

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 75¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over75%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$705.7

Total Shares937

Combined PnL+$88.46

Under9 traders

Total Value$306.83

Total Shares1,098

Combined PnL-$81.23

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 65.9¢	$604.24	$692.4	+$88.16	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$330.75	+$68.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$194.25	-$68.25
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.3¢	$188.42	$128.76	-$59.65	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 35¢	$293.2	$63.3	+$7.46	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$66.1	$42.88	-$23.22	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 35.4¢	$23.31	$24.35	+$1.04	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 35.7¢	$43.07	$17.69	-$0.38	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$13.76	$14.91	+$1.15	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 65¢	$13	$13.3	+$0.3	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$13.52	$7.13	-$6.39	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$5.64	$5.51	-$0.13	50% 501-511 (1012)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$3.4	$2.3	-$1.1	48% 2658-2887 (5545)

RN1

Over

Invested

$604.24

Value

$692.4

PnL

+$88.16

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Over$262.550¢+$68.25

Under$262.550¢-$68.25

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$188.42

Value

$128.76

PnL

-$59.65

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$293.2

Value

$63.3

PnL

+$7.46

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.1

Value

$42.88

PnL

-$23.22

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.31

Value

$24.35

PnL

+$1.04

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.07

Value

$17.69

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.76

Value

$14.91

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$13

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.52

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$6.39

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$1.1

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.