Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$49.57

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 80¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,447

Combined PnL+$48.53

Under8 traders

Total Value$343

Total Shares1,696

Combined PnL+$1.04

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 83¢	$830	$845	+$15	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
RN1	Overavg 75.2¢	$298.54	$331.32	+$32.78	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 19.1¢	$302.67	$301.9	-$0.77	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 83¢	$41.5	$42.25	+$0.75	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 21.1¢	$12.21	$13.03	+$0.83	50% 501-511 (1012)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$8.7	$9.28	+$0.58	44% 350-441 (791)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$6.31	$6.12	-$0.19	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$5.18	$5.8	+$0.62	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$3.93	$4.19	+$0.26	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.6	+$0.05	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$1.41	$1.08	-$0.33	48% 4069-4469 (8538)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$830

Value

$845

PnL

+$15

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

RN1

Over

Invested

$298.54

Value

$331.32

PnL

+$32.78

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$302.67

Value

$301.9

PnL

-$0.77

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$41.5

Value

$42.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.21

Value

$13.03

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.28

PnL

+$0.58

Record

44%

350-441 (791)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0.19

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.62

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.93

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.26

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.33

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.