Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 210.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$156.55

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 95.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,312

Combined PnL+$177.92

Under3 traders

Total Value$525.65

Total Shares629

Combined PnL-$21.37

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 93.9¢	$944	$944.7	+$0.7	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
AN Anon455	Overavg 83¢	$861.14	$916.29	+$55.15	50% 501-511 (1012)
RN1	Overavg 84.8¢	$685.02	$755.59	+$70.57	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
NO NotJumpCTR	Underavg 50¢	$525	$509.25	-$15.75	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 83¢	$681.86	$499.73	+$51.36	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$18.16	$13.74	-$4.41	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 92¢	$11.5	$11.69	+$0.19	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Overavg 83.1¢	$4.49	$4.43	-$0.06	62% 289-177 (466)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$3.86	$2.65	-$1.21	50% 4065-4065 (8130)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$944

Value

$944.7

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$861.14

Value

$916.29

PnL

+$55.15

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

RN1

Over

Invested

$685.02

Value

$755.59

PnL

+$70.57

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

NotJumpCTR

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$509.25

PnL

-$15.75

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$681.86

Value

$499.73

PnL

+$51.36

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.16

Value

$13.74

PnL

-$4.41

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$0.19

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

thatsabing0<$100

Over

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.06

Record

62%

289-177 (466)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.86

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$1.21

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.