Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 208.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$118.07

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 98¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,432

Combined PnL+$105.78

Under6 traders

Total Value$716.78

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL+$12.28

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fxwd12345	Overavg 88¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$104.15	69% 59-27 (86)
NO NotJumpCTR	Underavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 12¢	$106.53	$115.4	+$8.88	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 84¢	$38.71	$39.7	+$0.99	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$30.84	$33.41	+$2.57	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$24	$26	+$2	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 87¢	$20.69	$21.34	+$0.64	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$16.28	$15.12	-$1.16	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$1.85	$1.85	+$0	50% 501-511 (1012)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$1,222

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$104.15

Record

69%

59-27 (86)

NotJumpCTR

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$106.53

Value

$115.4

PnL

+$8.88

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$38.71

Value

$39.7

PnL

+$0.99

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.84

Value

$33.41

PnL

+$2.57

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24

Value

$26

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$20.69

Value

$21.34

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.28

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$1.16

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.