Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 204.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$111.89

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 99¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,863

Combined PnL-$41.58

Under4 traders

Total Value$37.33

Total Shares3,175

Combined PnL-$70.31

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 98.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1.51	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 99¢	$976.63	$944.43	-$31.45	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
NO NotJump	Overavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
RN1	Overavg 91¢	$175.25	$180.74	+$5.49	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$18.33	$16.5	-$1.83	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 98.1¢	$21.63	$15	-$6.63	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 9.4¢	$82.64	$13.56	-$69.08	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$2.67	$3.67	+$1	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$4	$3.6	-$0.4	48% 2658-2887 (5545)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$1,196.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.51

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$976.63

Value

$944.43

PnL

-$31.45

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

NotJump

Over

Invested

$525

Value

$514.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

RN1

Over

Invested

$175.25

Value

$180.74

PnL

+$5.49

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.33

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$1.83

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$21.63

Value

$15

PnL

-$6.63

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.64

Value

$13.56

PnL

-$69.08

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.67

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$1

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.