Spread: Suns (-3.5)

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (29%) · Lakers at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Suns<1¢Lakers>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 29%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$120.07

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 99.2¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns1%

Lakers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns10 traders

Total Value$494.77

Total Shares1,113

Combined PnL-$151.76

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$545.85

Total Shares548

Combined PnL+$31.69

Suns — 71%Lakers — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lakers) and the top 1000 (13 on Suns) disagree here.

ctrSuns 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Sunsavg 50¢	$525	$483	-$42	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
FL Flaznorp	Lakersavg 89¢	$312.38	$348.01	+$35.63	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
RN1	Lakersavg 87¢	$163.33	$156.81	-$6.52	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Lakersavg 89¢	$21.36	$23.8	+$2.44	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
CI cigarettes<$100	Lakersavg 98.3¢	$17.09	$17.24	+$0.15	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 34¢	$36.24	$3.2	-$33.04	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Sunsavg 7.6¢	$138.13	$2.3	-$5.47	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sunsavg 33¢	$21.93	$1.99	-$19.94	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sunsavg 33¢	$15.45	$1.4	-$14.05	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 13¢	$20.28	$1.33	-$18.95	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 11¢	$11.77	$0.91	-$10.86	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 11¢	$5.5	$0.43	-$5.08	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Sunsavg 11¢	$1.65	$0.13	-$1.52	41% 1228-1765 (2993)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Sunsavg 32¢	$0.94	$0.09	-$0.85	46% 1257-1451 (2708)

NotJumpCTR

Suns

Invested

$525

Value

$483

PnL

-$42

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Flaznorp

Lakers

Invested

$312.38

Value

$348.01

PnL

+$35.63

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

RN1

Lakers

Invested

$163.33

Value

$156.81

PnL

-$6.52

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

ferdinand2<$100

Lakers

Invested

$21.36

Value

$23.8

PnL

+$2.44

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

cigarettes<$100

Lakers

Invested

$17.09

Value

$17.24

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$36.24

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$33.04

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Suns

Invested

$138.13

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$5.47

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$21.93

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$19.94

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

LimousinCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$15.45

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$14.05

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$20.28

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$18.95

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$11.77

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$10.86

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$5.08

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

sentrioCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.65

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.52

Record

41%

1228-1765 (2993)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.85

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lakers) and the top 1000 (13 on Suns) disagree here.

ctrSuns 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.