Spread: Suns (-2.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (45%) · Lakers at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Suns5¢Lakers95¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 45%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.07

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 95¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns5%

Lakers95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,001

Combined PnL+$286.63

Suns6 traders

Total Value$143.11

Total Shares4,431

Combined PnL-$322.7

Lakers — 45%Suns — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLakers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Lakersavg 86.9¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$265.27	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
NO NotJump	Lakersavg 50¢	$525	$519.75	-$5.25	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
FE ferdinand2	Lakersavg 87¢	$191.4	$217.8	+$26.4	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Sunsavg 11.1¢	$321.28	$76.5	-$244.78	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Lakersavg 94.7¢	$56.64	$56.23	-$0.41	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1CTR	Sunsavg 10.2¢	$106.74	$41.99	-$64.75	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 12.1¢	$52.73	$14.7	-$5.44	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 3¢	$10.43	$9.12	-$1.31	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
SE sentrio<$100	Lakersavg 87¢	$6.69	$7.31	+$0.62	41% 1228-1765 (2993)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Sunsavg 35¢	$5.38	$0.62	-$4.77	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sunsavg 37¢	$1.85	$0.2	-$1.65	38% 1433-2333 (3766)

Flaznorp

Lakers

Invested

$1,902.44

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$265.27

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

NotJump

Lakers

Invested

$525

Value

$519.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

ferdinand2

Lakers

Invested

$191.4

Value

$217.8

PnL

+$26.4

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

6512395314597884CTR

Suns

Invested

$321.28

Value

$76.5

PnL

-$244.78

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Lakers

Invested

$56.64

Value

$56.23

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1CTR

Suns

Invested

$106.74

Value

$41.99

PnL

-$64.75

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$52.73

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$5.44

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$10.43

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$1.31

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

sentrio<$100

Lakers

Invested

$6.69

Value

$7.31

PnL

+$0.62

Record

41%

1228-1765 (2993)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$5.38

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$4.77

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

LimousinCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.65

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLakers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.