Spread: Lakers (-8.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (78%) · Lakers at 87¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers87¢Suns13¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 78%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$569.44

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 87¢

+50% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers87%

Suns13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,510

Combined PnL+$589.74

Suns2 traders

Total Value$27.82

Total Shares51

Combined PnL-$20.3

Lakers — 78%Suns — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSuns 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Lakersavg 56.7¢	$974.05	$1.5K	+$538.75	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lakersavg 65.2¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$319.66	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
SU suitcase6628	Lakersavg 53¢	$530	$885	+$355	65% 793-418 (1211)
MI micky456	Lakersavg 53¢	$819.91	$843.12	+$23.21	48% 654-715 (1369)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$525	$519.75	-$5.25	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50¢	$262.5	$257.25	-$5.25
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Sunsavg 40¢	$164.89	$162.56	-$2.33	50% 501-511 (1012)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 40¢	$116.84	$121.23	+$4.38
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 68¢	$48.04	$41.33	-$6.71
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Lakersavg 52.9¢	$122.23	$123.99	+$1.76	48% 653-714 (1367)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 52.9¢	$80.46	$84.34	+$3.88
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 46.9¢	$41.77	$39.65	-$2.12
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Sunsavg 48¢	$116.96	$120.02	+$3.07	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 48¢	$87.51	$91.15	+$3.65
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51¢	$29.45	$28.87	-$0.58
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Lakersavg 51¢	$116.69	$119.05	+$2.37	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51¢	$61.84	$60.63	-$1.21
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 46.9¢	$54.84	$58.42	+$3.58
PA Pan9X	Lakersavg 77.6¢	$102.66	$38.8	-$8.93	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
TA takeormake<$100	Lakersavg 53¢	$37.05	$38.1	+$1.05	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sunsavg 66.4¢	$121.12	$22.82	-$20.3	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Lakersavg 82¢	$17.93	$18.25	+$0.33	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$5	$5	+$0	38% 1426-2282 (3708)

RN1

Lakers

Invested

$974.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$538.75

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lakers

Invested

$1,383.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$319.66

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

suitcase6628

Lakers

Invested

$530

Value

$885

PnL

+$355

Record

65%

793-418 (1211)

micky456

Lakers

Invested

$819.91

Value

$843.12

PnL

+$23.21

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

NotJumpARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$525

Value

$519.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Suns$262.550¢+$0

Lakers$262.550¢-$5.25

Anon455ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$164.89

Value

$162.56

PnL

-$2.33

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

Both legs:

Suns$116.8440¢+$4.38

Lakers$48.0468¢-$6.71

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$122.23

Value

$123.99

PnL

+$1.76

Record

48%

653-714 (1367)

Both legs:

Lakers$80.4652.9¢+$3.88

Suns$41.7746.9¢-$2.12

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$116.96

Value

$120.02

PnL

+$3.07

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Both legs:

Suns$87.5148¢+$3.65

Lakers$29.4551¢-$0.58

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$116.69

Value

$119.05

PnL

+$2.37

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Both legs:

Lakers$61.8451¢-$1.21

Suns$54.8446.9¢+$3.58

Pan9X

Lakers

Invested

$102.66

Value

$38.8

PnL

-$8.93

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

takeormake<$100

Lakers

Invested

$37.05

Value

$38.1

PnL

+$1.05

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

38791873984189CTR

Suns

Invested

$121.12

Value

$22.82

PnL

-$20.3

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

topdogbigboi<$100

Lakers

Invested

$17.93

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.33

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSuns 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.