Spread: Lakers (-5.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (78%) · Lakers at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers68¢Suns32¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 78%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$40.19

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 68¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers68%

Suns32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,677

Combined PnL+$103.5

Suns2 traders

Total Value$421.81

Total Shares1,324

Combined PnL-$63.31

Lakers — 78%Suns — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Lakersavg 63.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$100.68	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sunsavg 39¢	$363.6	$298.33	-$65.27	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Sunsavg 31¢	$121.52	$123.48	+$1.96	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Lakersavg 41.5¢	$79.71	$80.68	+$0.97	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Lakersavg 40¢	$59.97	$62.55	+$2.58	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Lakersavg 56.7¢	$13.16	$14.97	+$1.81	56% 4194-3285 (7479)
SU suntori<$100	Lakersavg 42.9¢	$10.75	$10.52	-$0.23	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 58¢	$21.37	$8.5	-$2.37	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
AN Anon455<$100	Lakersavg 67¢	$2.03	$2.08	+$0.05	49% 497-511 (1008)

RN1

Lakers

Invested

$1,025.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$100.68

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

FlaznorpCTR

Suns

Invested

$363.6

Value

$298.33

PnL

-$65.27

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Suns

Invested

$121.52

Value

$123.48

PnL

+$1.96

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

SnakeBall<$100

Lakers

Invested

$79.71

Value

$80.68

PnL

+$0.97

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Lakers

Invested

$59.97

Value

$62.55

PnL

+$2.58

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Lakers

Invested

$13.16

Value

$14.97

PnL

+$1.81

Record

56%

4194-3285 (7479)

suntori<$100

Lakers

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$0.23

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$21.37

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$2.37

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Anon455<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.