Spread: Lakers (-14.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (91%) · Suns at 62¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Lakers38¢Suns62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 91%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$273.52

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 62¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers38%

Suns62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns10 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares11,867

Combined PnL+$270.03

Lakers1 trader

Total Value$135.13

Total Shares331

Combined PnL+$3.5

Suns — 91%Lakers — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Sunsavg 63.6¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$157.47	49% 497-511 (1008)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 64.4¢	$3.1K	$1.5K	+$5.98	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
65 6512395314597884	Sunsavg 64.6¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$20.32	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
RN1ARB<$100	Sunsavg 64.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$60.11	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 64.6¢	$665.55	$669.29	+$3.74
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 41.2¢	$422.41	$358.56	-$63.85
38 38791873984189	Sunsavg 62.7¢	$867.77	$683.71	+$35.11	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$525	$441.25	+$6.25	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50¢	$262.5	$349.13	+$86.63
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50¢	$137.5	$92.13	-$80.38
PA Pan9X	Sunsavg 62.8¢	$279.27	$286.53	+$14.62	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
TO topdogbigboi	Sunsavg 61.8¢	$251.85	$265	+$13.15	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 70¢	$287	$262.4	-$24.6	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
VE Venusian	Sunsavg 50¢	$132.18	$178.44	+$46.26	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Lakersavg 39.5¢	$131.63	$135.13	+$3.5	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
LR lryyy<$100	Sunsavg 67¢	$19.36	$20.23	+$0.87	45% 1018-1224 (2242)
CI cigarettes<$100	Sunsavg 62¢	$14.98	$15.82	+$0.85	53% 7602-6693 (14295)

Anon455

Suns

Invested

$3,455.47

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$157.47

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$3,092

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$5.98

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

6512395314597884

Suns

Invested

$1,043.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.32

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

RN1ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$1,087.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$60.11

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Suns$665.5564.6¢+$3.74

Lakers$422.4141.2¢-$63.85

38791873984189

Suns

Invested

$867.77

Value

$683.71

PnL

+$35.11

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

NotJumpARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$525

Value

$441.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

Suns$262.550¢+$86.63

Lakers$137.550¢-$80.38

Pan9X

Suns

Invested

$279.27

Value

$286.53

PnL

+$14.62

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

topdogbigboi

Suns

Invested

$251.85

Value

$265

PnL

+$13.15

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$287

Value

$262.4

PnL

-$24.6

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Venusian

Suns

Invested

$132.18

Value

$178.44

PnL

+$46.26

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Lakers

Invested

$131.63

Value

$135.13

PnL

+$3.5

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

lryyy<$100

Suns

Invested

$19.36

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$0.87

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

cigarettes<$100

Suns

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15.82

PnL

+$0.85

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.