Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 242.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 90¢ · $483 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$483.14
$13.1
84.5¢ → 89.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 81.5¢ | $189.87 | $208.54 | +$18.66 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 88¢ | $176 | $175 | -$1 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 15.5¢ | $219.54 | $50.8 | +$7.26 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $48.83 | $39.44 | -$9.39 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $7.54 | $6.09 | -$1.45 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $2.94 | $2.38 | -$0.57 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $1.32 | $0.9 | -$0.42 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
RN1Invested
$189.87
Value
$208.54
PnL
+$18.66
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$176
Value
$175
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$219.54
Value
$50.8
PnL
+$7.26
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$48.83
Value
$39.44
PnL
-$9.39
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$7.54
Value
$6.09
PnL
-$1.45
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.57
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$1.32
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.42
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.