Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$67.74
69.8¢ → 86.5¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 72.5¢ | $434.87 | $414.19 | +$20.85 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 64¢ | $303.57 | $377.09 | +$73.52 | 45% 185-223 (408) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $352.01 | $346.16 | -$5.85 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70¢ | $193.2 | $219.42 | +$26.22 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 25.7¢ | $158.81 | $126.74 | -$32.07 | |
 RN1 | Underavg 80.4¢ | $101.67 | $109.36 | +$7.7 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $68.81 | $33.18 | -$35.63 | 31% 411-924 (1335) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $23.43 | $15.47 | -$2.02 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $17.79 | $12.06 | +$3.13 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $1.03 | $1.22 | +$0.19 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
Invested
$434.87
Value
$414.19
PnL
+$20.85
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$303.57
Value
$377.09
PnL
+$73.52
Record
45%
185-223 (408)
Invested
$352.01
Value
$346.16
PnL
-$5.85
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$101.67
Value
$109.36
PnL
+$7.7
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$68.81
Value
$33.18
PnL
-$35.63
Record
31%
411-924 (1335)
Invested
$23.43
Value
$15.47
PnL
-$2.02
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$17.79
Value
$12.06
PnL
+$3.13
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.19
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.