Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$32.25
86.8¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 91¢ | $1.0K | $954.22 | -$82.89 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
 RN1 | Underavg 69¢ | $259.59 | $226.14 | +$55.11 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Overavg 35.4¢ | $204.03 | $206.57 | +$2.53 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35.4¢ | $143.87 | $158.27 | +$14.41 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 76¢ | $60.17 | $48.29 | -$11.88 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 11.1¢ | $123.93 | $117.29 | -$6.65 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 32¢ | $9.92 | $12.09 | +$2.17 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
Invested
$1,037.11
Value
$954.22
PnL
-$82.89
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
RN1Invested
$259.59
Value
$226.14
PnL
+$55.11
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$204.03
Value
$206.57
PnL
+$2.53
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.93
Value
$117.29
PnL
-$6.65
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$9.92
Value
$12.09
PnL
+$2.17
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.