Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 44¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$177.96

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 43.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,320

Combined PnL+$138.94

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,134

Combined PnL+$39.02

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 54¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$138.27	48% 101-110 (211)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$112.4	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$136.74	14% 75-471 (546)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$318.79	$321.92	+$3.13	23% 7-24 (31)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45¢	$112.5	$121.25	+$8.75	52% 445-417 (862)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 46¢	$95.22	$100.4	+$5.17	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816<$100	Underavg 53¢	$87.03	$84.57	-$2.46	3% 7-200 (207)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$11.21	$11.82	+$0.61	54% 563-474 (1037)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.85	+$0.15	32% 282-611 (893)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$2,986.72

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$138.27

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,378.22

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$112.4

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,758.14

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$136.74

Record

14%

75-471 (546)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$318.79

Value

$321.92

PnL

+$3.13

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$112.5

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$8.75

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$95.22

Value

$100.4

PnL

+$5.17

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816<$100

Under

Invested

$87.03

Value

$84.57

PnL

-$2.46

Record

7-200 (207)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$0.61

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.