Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 38¢ · $990 held · ended Nov 12

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$990.47

Combined PnL

$40.63

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 37.5¢

-23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$375.16

Total Shares665

Combined PnL+$65.63

Over8 traders

Total Value$615.31

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL-$25.01

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 46¢	$306.16	$371.76	+$65.61	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 48¢	$268.95	$285.76	+$16.81	47% 299-342 (641)
RN1CTR	Overavg 51¢	$110.77	$95.56	-$15.2	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$88.5	$79.35	-$9.15	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$52.31	$55.58	+$3.27	48% 536-588 (1124)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$52.53	$45.32	-$7.21	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$58.38	$44.68	-$13.7	30% 402-921 (1323)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$12.8	$6.52	+$0.03	55% 683-554 (1237)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 63¢	$3.37	$3.4	+$0.03	53% 290-259 (549)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.55	+$0.15	34% 328-634 (962)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$306.16

Value

$371.76

PnL

+$65.61

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$268.95

Value

$285.76

PnL

+$16.81

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$110.77

Value

$95.56

PnL

-$15.2

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.5

Value

$79.35

PnL

-$9.15

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.31

Value

$55.58

PnL

+$3.27

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.53

Value

$45.32

PnL

-$7.21

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.38

Value

$44.68

PnL

-$13.7

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.8

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.