Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$25.87

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 53.5¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$818.27

Total Shares1,608

Combined PnL+$77.9

Over5 traders

Total Value$192.93

Total Shares391

Combined PnL-$52.03

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$763.24	$716.31	-$46.94	45% 185-223 (408)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$441.06	$391.08	-$49.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$322.18	$325.22	+$3.04
RN1	Underavg 46.8¢	$312.3	$356.91	+$44.62	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$306.62	$283.62	-$23	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$234.31	$196.12	-$38.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$72.31	$87.5	+$15.19
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 42¢	$164.42	$168.33	+$3.91	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$139.72	$144.38	+$4.66	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$102	$97	-$5
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$37.72	$47.38	+$9.66
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50¢	$108.29	$115.87	+$7.58	31% 412-920 (1332)
74 0x7462...3ac3	Underavg 49¢	$100	$109.18	+$9.18	—
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$74.36	$65.07	-$9.3	38% 222-363 (585)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 43¢	$51.6	$64.2	+$12.6	31% 411-924 (1335)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$60.39	$63.18	+$2.8	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 57.9¢	$170.81	$45.6	-$47.56	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$11.6	$13.8	+$2.2	49% 693-734 (1427)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 51.1¢	$5.45	$5.28	-$0.17	55% 683-554 (1237)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 43¢	$3.77	$3.77	+$0	53% 1852-1667 (3519)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$763.24

Value

$716.31

PnL

-$46.94

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Both legs:

Over$441.0652.4¢-$49.98

Under$322.1853¢+$3.04

RN1

Under

Invested

$312.3

Value

$356.91

PnL

+$44.62

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$306.62

Value

$283.62

PnL

-$23

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Over$234.3150.8¢-$38.19

Under$72.3147.5¢+$15.19

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$164.42

Value

$168.33

PnL

+$3.91

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$139.72

Value

$144.38

PnL

+$4.66

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Invested

$108.29

Value

$115.87

PnL

+$7.58

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

0x7462...3ac3

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$109.18

PnL

+$9.18

Record

—

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.36

Value

$65.07

PnL

-$9.3

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$51.6

Value

$64.2

PnL

+$12.6

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.39

Value

$63.18

PnL

+$2.8

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$170.81

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$47.56

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.6

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$2.2

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0.17

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.77

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.