Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$18.42

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 51.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$544.25

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL+$21.65

Over6 traders

Total Value$686.16

Total Shares1,217

Combined PnL-$40.07

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46¢	$331.9	$349.94	+$18.04	31% 412-920 (1332)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 57.8¢	$251.67	$237.2	-$14.47	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 59.7¢	$299.67	$182.37	+$3.6	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.7¢	$132.44	$122.1	-$5.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$50.89	$60.27	+$9.38
AN Anon455	Overavg 54¢	$167.89	$171	+$3.11	45% 185-223 (408)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 62¢	$175.65	$145.9	-$29.75	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 38¢	$124.33	$124.33	+$0	31% 411-924 (1335)
RN1	Overavg 55.5¢	$109.09	$108.2	-$0.89	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$66.38	$69.99	+$3.61	31% 412-897 (1309)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 62¢	$16.74	$18.36	+$1.62	49% 693-734 (1427)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 62¢	$5.18	$5.49	+$0.31	55% 683-554 (1237)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$331.9

Value

$349.94

PnL

+$18.04

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$251.67

Value

$237.2

PnL

-$14.47

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$299.67

Value

$182.37

PnL

+$3.6

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Over$132.4459.7¢-$5.78

Under$50.8938¢+$9.38

Anon455

Over

Invested

$167.89

Value

$171

PnL

+$3.11

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$175.65

Value

$145.9

PnL

-$29.75

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$124.33

Value

$124.33

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

RN1

Over

Invested

$109.09

Value

$108.2

PnL

-$0.89

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$69.99

PnL

+$3.61

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$16.74

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$1.62

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.31

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.