Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 57¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$337.27

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 57.5¢

-16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,205

Combined PnL-$328.86

Under5 traders

Total Value$254.81

Total Shares732

Combined PnL-$8.41

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Overavg 69.3¢	$703.78	$629.43	-$74.35	45% 185-223 (408)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 71¢	$785.07	$588.26	-$196.81	55% 719-584 (1303)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 63.7¢	$586.12	$528.92	-$57.2	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 66¢	$312.42	$311.77	-$0.65	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66¢	$203.28	$218.68	+$15.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$109.14	$93.09	-$16.05
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 71.9¢	$263.62	$246.78	-$16.85	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.9¢	$181.8	$154.33	-$27.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.5¢	$81.82	$92.45	+$10.62
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 72¢	$144	$142	-$2	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 34¢	$126.42	$122.7	-$3.72	31% 412-920 (1332)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$66.38	$72.34	+$5.96	31% 412-897 (1309)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$56.25	$45.31	-$10.94	53% 290-259 (549)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 69.1¢	$39.36	$40.47	+$1.11	49% 693-734 (1427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$6.95	$7.24	+$0.29	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$7.22	$7.22	+$0	30% 402-921 (1323)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Overavg 53¢	$3.72	$4.03	+$0.31	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 66¢	$5.53	$3.79	+$0.08	55% 683-554 (1237)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$703.78

Value

$629.43

PnL

-$74.35

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$785.07

Value

$588.26

PnL

-$196.81

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$586.12

Value

$528.92

PnL

-$57.2

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$312.42

Value

$311.77

PnL

-$0.65

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Over$203.2866¢+$15.4

Under$109.1434¢-$16.05

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$263.62

Value

$246.78

PnL

-$16.85

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Over$181.871.9¢-$27.47

Under$81.8234.5¢+$10.62

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$144

Value

$142

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$126.42

Value

$122.7

PnL

-$3.72

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$72.34

PnL

+$5.96

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.25

Value

$45.31

PnL

-$10.94

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$39.36

Value

$40.47

PnL

+$1.11

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.22

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Over

Invested

$3.72

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.31

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$5.53

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.