Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$143.31

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 63.5¢

-13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$780.18

Total Shares1,243

Combined PnL-$123.95

Under7 traders

Total Value$298.06

Total Shares939

Combined PnL-$19.36

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 74.2¢	$806.35	$689.91	-$116.44	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$383.65	$454.34	+$70.7	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$249.57	$255.81	+$6.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 26¢	$134.08	$198.54	+$64.46
74 0x7462...3ac3CTR	Underavg 40¢	$100	$91.25	-$8.75	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$66.38	$60.57	-$5.81	31% 412-897 (1309)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$62.79	$58.29	-$4.49	45% 185-223 (408)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Overavg 74¢	$53.28	$45.72	-$7.56	—
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 52.9¢	$44.49	$44.55	+$0.05	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 24.1¢	$33.07	$43.16	+$10.09	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$38.36	$29.17	-$9.19	30% 402-921 (1323)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$10.83	$10.05	-$0.78	49% 693-734 (1427)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$6	$5.57	-$0.43	55% 683-554 (1237)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$806.35

Value

$689.91

PnL

-$116.44

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$383.65

Value

$454.34

PnL

+$70.7

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$249.5760¢+$6.24

Under$134.0826¢+$64.46

0x7462...3ac3CTR

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$91.25

PnL

-$8.75

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$60.57

PnL

-$5.81

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.79

Value

$58.29

PnL

-$4.49

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Over

Invested

$53.28

Value

$45.72

PnL

-$7.56

Record

—

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$44.49

Value

$44.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.07

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$10.09

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.36

Value

$29.17

PnL

-$9.19

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$0.78

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$0.43

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.