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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Lakers — but Bucks won instead.

Spread: Lakers (-21.5)

Resolved Bucks. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Lakers. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Lakers 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$150.43

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers0%

Bucks100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,830

Combined PnL-$805.26

Bucks3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,482

Combined PnL+$654.83

Lakers — 67%Bucks — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Lakersavg 45¢	$450	—	-$450	16% 58-313 (371)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lakersavg 43.1¢	$311.93	—	-$311.93	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bucksavg 55.2¢	$699.78	$1.3K	+$559.05	55% 843-701 (1544)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Lakersavg 50¢	$352.44	$268	-$84.44	39% 233-367 (600)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50¢	$197	—	-$197
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 58¢	$155.44	$268	+$112.56
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Lakersavg 59¢	$324.42	$169.4	-$105.02	53% 305-275 (580)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 59¢	$139.59	—	-$139.59
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 55¢	$93.17	$169.4	+$34.56
TA takeormake	Bucksavg 59¢	$82.01	$139	+$56.99	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Lakersavg 46¢	$28.57	—	-$28.57	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
RN1<$100	Bucksavg 54¢	$45.54	$84.33	+$38.79	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Lakersavg 26¢	$7.02	—	-$7.02	32% 444-952 (1396)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Lakersavg 45¢	$7.02	—	-$7.02	49% 973-998 (1971)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Lakersavg 34¢	$0.72	—	-$0.72	47% 350-393 (743)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Invested

$450

Value

—

PnL

-$450

Record

16%

58-313 (371)

Invested

$311.93

Value

—

PnL

-$311.93

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$699.78

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$559.05

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Invested

$352.44

Value

$268

PnL

-$84.44

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

Both legs:

Lakers$19750¢-$197

Bucks$155.4458¢+$112.56

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Invested

$324.42

Value

$169.4

PnL

-$105.02

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Both legs:

Lakers$139.5959¢-$139.59

Bucks$93.1755¢+$34.56

Invested

$82.01

Value

$139

PnL

+$56.99

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$28.57

Value

—

PnL

-$28.57

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Invested

$45.54

Value

$84.33

PnL

+$38.79

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

—

PnL

-$7.02

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

—

PnL

-$7.02

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.72

Value

—

PnL

-$0.72

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf7e5fa11...5d9238

Slug

nba-lal-mil-2026-11-11-spread-away-21pt5

Traders in this Market

ferrariChampions2026

Lakers — $0

Flaznorp

Lakers — $0

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bucks — $1.3K

justaluckydude

Arbitrage — excluded

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Arbitrage — excluded

takeormake

Bucks — $139

suntori

Lakers — $0

RN1

Bucks — $84.33

MadridTime

Lakers — $0

ferdinand2

Lakers — $0

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