Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (67%) · Lakers at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
6
Lakers 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$18.49
84.9¢ → 86¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Lakersavg 83.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$54.86 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
 RN1 | Lakersavg 90¢ | $452.4 | $372.76 | -$36.64 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
38 38791873984189 | Lakersavg 85.4¢ | $158.5 | $166.01 | +$7.5 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Bucksavg 14.9¢ | $213 | $164.45 | -$48.55 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Lakersavg 85¢ | $92.65 | $82.76 | -$9.89 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 85¢ | $58.65 | $61.76 | +$3.11 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 17¢ | $34 | $21 | -$13 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lakersavg 85.5¢ | $67.56 | $25.96 | -$0.11 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 14¢ | $20.72 | $25.16 | +$4.44 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
Invested
$1,244.04
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$54.86
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
RN1Invested
$452.4
Value
$372.76
PnL
-$36.64
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$158.5
Value
$166.01
PnL
+$7.5
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$213
Value
$164.45
PnL
-$48.55
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$92.65
Value
$82.76
PnL
-$9.89
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.56
Value
$25.96
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$20.72
Value
$25.16
PnL
+$4.44
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.