Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 55¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$324.39

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 54.5¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 15 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares17,825

Combined PnL+$365.93

Over11 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,083

Combined PnL-$41.54

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehc	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$47.2	61% 4520-2835 (7355)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$0.67	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
nigiri99	Underavg 48.7¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$349.27	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$62.89	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 53.3¢	$341.03	$334.07	-$6.96	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$170.13	$172.3	+$2.16
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.3¢	$170.9	$161.78	-$9.12
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$260.75	$263.37	+$2.62	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$175	$176.75	+$1.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$85.75	$86.62	+$0.87
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$260.18	$241.97	-$18.2	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 50¢	$200	$182	-$18	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 49¢	$94.46	$95.42	+$0.96	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$88.32	$87.36	-$0.96	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$69.45	$68.84	-$0.61	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.9¢	$44.67	$42.62	-$2.05	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$75	$31.19	-$1.79	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$11.21	$11.09	-$0.12	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$4.95	-$0.25	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$9.98	$4.94	-$0.2	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$2.48	-$0.03	50% 23433-23429 (46862)

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$4,727.42

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$47.2

Record

61%

4520-2835 (7355)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,291.65

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,919.64

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$349.27

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$1,124.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$62.89

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$341.03

Value

$334.07

PnL

-$6.96

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Under$170.1348.9¢+$2.16

Over$170.953.3¢-$9.12

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$260.75

Value

$263.37

PnL

+$2.62

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Invested

$260.18

Value

$241.97

PnL

-$18.2

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$182

PnL

-$18

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$94.46

Value

$95.42

PnL

+$0.96

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.32

Value

$87.36

PnL

-$0.96

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.45

Value

$68.84

PnL

-$0.61

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.67

Value

$42.62

PnL

-$2.05

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75

Value

$31.19

PnL

-$1.79

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.09

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.98

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 15 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.