Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 61¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

-$18.23

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 61¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,980

Combined PnL+$49

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares8,113

Combined PnL-$67.24

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 53¢	$6.9K	$3.7K	+$34.46	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
AY ay118CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$71.97	41% 58-82 (140)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 64.4¢	$637.09	$629.33	-$7.76	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 68¢	$275.92	$261.16	-$14.76	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$170	$172.5	+$2.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 37¢	$105.92	$88.66	-$17.26
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 31.3¢	$139.25	$174.83	+$35.58	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.3¢	$108.02	$136.28	+$28.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$31.23	$38.56	+$7.33
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$299	$139.04	+$1.5	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$106.48	$107.64	+$1.16	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
AN Anon455	Underavg 54.1¢	$78.4	$100.01	+$21.61	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$101.46	$90.32	-$11.14	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 31.4¢	$39.97	$49.49	+$9.53	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$29.86	$33.63	+$3.77	48% 521-567 (1088)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 60¢	$6	$7.9	+$1.9	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 73¢	$7.31	$6.11	-$1.2	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$5	$2.33	-$0.08	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$6,891

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$34.46

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

ay118CTR

Over

Invested

$3,417.64

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$71.97

Record

41%

58-82 (140)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$637.09

Value

$629.33

PnL

-$7.76

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$275.92

Value

$261.16

PnL

-$14.76

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Under$17068¢+$2.5

Over$105.9237¢-$17.26

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$139.25

Value

$174.83

PnL

+$35.58

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Over$108.0231.3¢+$28.25

Under$31.2349¢+$7.33

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$299

Value

$139.04

PnL

+$1.5

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$106.48

Value

$107.64

PnL

+$1.16

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$78.4

Value

$100.01

PnL

+$21.61

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$101.46

Value

$90.32

PnL

-$11.14

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.97

Value

$49.49

PnL

+$9.53

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.86

Value

$33.63

PnL

+$3.77

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$1.9

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.31

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$1.2

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.