Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

4 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (19%) · Pistons at 56¢ · $63K held · ends Nov 8

Pistons56¢Lakers44¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 19%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

4 of 21 top traders (19%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons56%

Lakers44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons4 traders

Total Value$34.6K

Total Shares61,300

Combined PnL+$415.53

Lakers17 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares51,097

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Pistons — 19%Lakers — 81%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

16% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrLakers 88% · 16

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 84% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Pistonsavg 56¢	$56.8K	$32.1K	+$284.08	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Lakersavg 47.7¢	$15.2K	$13.9K	$-1.3K	49% 516-547 (1063)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Lakersavg 49.5¢	$12.4K	$5.7K	-$448.55	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 49.5¢	$4.8K	$4.2K	-$578.76
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$130.22
HI hi774cCTR	Lakersavg 49¢	$4.0K	$1.7K	-$221.23	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
MD mde4life1986	Pistonsavg 53.3¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	+$79.18	48% 175-189 (364)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$137.44	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
alpheclabs2CTR	Lakersavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$75.78	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$1,000	$925.53	-$74.47	55% 825-679 (1504)
GA GaditimaCTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$940	$870	-$70	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 54.7¢	$1.4K	$847.51	+$53.11	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lakersavg 43.9¢	$1.7K	$746.62	-$6.41	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
VE VenusianCTR	Lakersavg 49.3¢	$1.7K	$720.96	-$96.14	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
OM omnibus-076daa	Pistonsavg 56.6¢	$555.99	$314.13	-$0.84	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
nigiri99CTR	Lakersavg 49¢	$245	$217.5	-$27.5	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Lakersavg 43¢	$157.92	$159.75	+$1.84	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lakersavg 47.1¢	$946	$127.03	-$10.5	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Pistonsavg 58¢	$128.69	$89.85	-$2.24	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 58¢	$50.54	$49.23	-$1.31
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 42.5¢	$39.68	$40.61	-$0.94
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$129.39	$85.16	-$2.33	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 46¢	$40.24	$49.42	+$2.19
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 49¢	$40.26	$35.74	-$4.52
PA Pan9XCTR	Lakersavg 46.7¢	$207	$71.87	-$5.32	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$59.66	$55.25	-$4.41	47% 150-168 (318)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$100	$43.5	-$3.5	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$40.81	$17.75	-$2.24	48% 4168-4500 (8668)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Lakersavg 48¢	$12.5	$10.88	-$1.63	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lakersavg 53¢	$1.91	$1.85	-$0.06	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

ferrariChampions2026

Pistons

Invested

$56,805.48

Value

$32.1K

PnL

+$284.08

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Lakers

Invested

$15,204.97

Value

$13.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$12,376.29

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$448.55

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Both legs:

Lakers$4,780.6249.5¢-$578.76

Pistons$1,404.4551.7¢+$130.22

hi774cCTR

Lakers

Invested

$4,022.34

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$221.23

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

mde4life1986

Pistons

Invested

$2,438.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$79.18

Record

48%

175-189 (364)

SunlineTickerCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,472.46

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$137.44

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

alpheclabs2CTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,372.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$75.78

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

pltrkr111CTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$925.53

PnL

-$74.47

Record

55%

825-679 (1504)

GaditimaCTR

Lakers

Invested

$940

Value

$870

PnL

-$70

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$1,429.53

Value

$847.51

PnL

+$53.11

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

FlaznorpCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,716.38

Value

$746.62

PnL

-$6.41

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

VenusianCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,657.37

Value

$720.96

PnL

-$96.14

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

omnibus-076daa

Pistons

Invested

$555.99

Value

$314.13

PnL

-$0.84

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

nigiri99CTR

Lakers

Invested

$245

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$27.5

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Lakers

Invested

$157.92

Value

$159.75

PnL

+$1.84

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

38791873984189CTR

Lakers

Invested

$946

Value

$127.03

PnL

-$10.5

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

sentrioARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$128.69

Value

$89.85

PnL

-$2.24

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Both legs:

Pistons$50.5458¢-$1.31

Lakers$39.6842.5¢-$0.94

SnakeBallARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$129.39

Value

$85.16

PnL

-$2.33

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Both legs:

Pistons$40.2446¢+$2.19

Lakers$40.2649¢-$4.52

Pan9XCTR

Lakers

Invested

$207

Value

$71.87

PnL

-$5.32

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

biying99999CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$59.66

Value

$55.25

PnL

-$4.41

Record

47%

150-168 (318)

BoomLaLaCTR

Lakers

Invested

$100

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$40.81

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$2.24

Record

48%

4168-4500 (8668)

RLWGCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$12.5

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$1.63

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

4 of 21 top traders (19%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

16% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrLakers 88% · 16

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 84% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.