Spread: Pistons (-11.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (42%) · Lakers at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Pistons6¢Lakers94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 42%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$155.73

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 94¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons6%

Lakers94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$890.6

Total Shares948

Combined PnL+$128.59

Pistons7 traders

Total Value$264.62

Total Shares1,963

Combined PnL-$284.32

Lakers — 42%Pistons — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Lakersavg 87¢	$394.23	$430.4	+$36.17	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
38 38791873984189	Lakersavg 68.6¢	$241.11	$319.67	+$78.56	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 35¢	$96.56	$96.56	+$0	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 31¢	$69.13	$79.17	+$10.04	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 77¢	$61.32	$72.73	+$11.81	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pistonsavg 24.9¢	$293.16	$67.68	-$225.48	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Lakersavg 94¢	$51.69	$46.63	-$5.07	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
PU purplegatto<$100	Lakersavg 63.9¢	$14.06	$21.18	+$7.12	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 35.2¢	$76.05	$10.93	-$65.12	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 33¢	$4.62	$5.04	+$0.43	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 19.1¢	$7.62	$3.63	-$3.99	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
balthazarCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 9¢	$1.8	$1.61	-$0.19	30% 35278-83615 (118893)

6512395314597884

Lakers

Invested

$394.23

Value

$430.4

PnL

+$36.17

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

38791873984189

Lakers

Invested

$241.11

Value

$319.67

PnL

+$78.56

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$96.56

Value

$96.56

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$69.13

Value

$79.17

PnL

+$10.04

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$61.32

Value

$72.73

PnL

+$11.81

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

FlaznorpCTR

Pistons

Invested

$293.16

Value

$67.68

PnL

-$225.48

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Lakers

Invested

$51.69

Value

$46.63

PnL

-$5.07

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

purplegatto<$100

Lakers

Invested

$14.06

Value

$21.18

PnL

+$7.12

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$76.05

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$65.12

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$4.62

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Anon455CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$7.62

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$3.99

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

balthazarCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.19

Record

30%

35278-83615 (118893)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.