Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 228.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$124.27

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 70.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,509

Combined PnL-$92.04

Over4 traders

Total Value$159.55

Total Shares620

Combined PnL-$32.23

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 74.7¢	$1.0K	$955.01	-$94	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 80¢	$146.47	$117.96	-$28.51	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Under leg	Underavg 80¢	$109.63	$81.54	-$28.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$36.84	$36.42	-$0.42
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 30¢	$127.3	$91.48	-$35.82	56% 502-393 (895)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 80¢	$72	$71.1	-$0.9	64% 179-99 (278)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$55.9	$57.8	+$1.9	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 59¢	$8.43	$11.29	+$2.86	55% 399-332 (731)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 33.9¢	$23.32	$9.22	+$1.89	49% 446-472 (918)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.05	-$0.2	28% 298-765 (1063)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,049.01

Value

$955.01

PnL

-$94

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$146.47

Value

$117.96

PnL

-$28.51

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Under$109.6380¢-$28.09

Over$36.8441¢-$0.42

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$127.3

Value

$91.48

PnL

-$35.82

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$72

Value

$71.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.9

Value

$57.8

PnL

+$1.9

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.43

Value

$11.29

PnL

+$2.86

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.32

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$1.89

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.