Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 226.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$30.95
70.8¢ → 72.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 70.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$2.4 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $468.57 | $318.96 | -$149.61 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 34¢ | $369.16 | $217 | -$152.16 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 78¢ | $99.41 | $101.96 | +$2.55 | |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 74.8¢ | $165.26 | $176.8 | +$11.54 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 25.1¢ | $121.67 | $145.5 | +$23.83 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $39.54 | $42.17 | +$2.64 | 50% 190-192 (382) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 65.5¢ | $6.55 | $8 | +$1.45 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.4¢ | $11.13 | $5.02 | -$6.11 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
RN1Invested
$1,151.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$2.4
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$468.57
Value
$318.96
PnL
-$149.61
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.26
Value
$176.8
PnL
+$11.54
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$121.67
Value
$145.5
PnL
+$23.83
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$39.54
Value
$42.17
PnL
+$2.64
Record
50%
190-192 (382)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$8
PnL
+$1.45
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$11.13
Value
$5.02
PnL
-$6.11
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.