Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 62¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$65.53

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 62¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,814

Combined PnL+$9.46

Over3 traders

Total Value$290.31

Total Shares914

Combined PnL-$74.98

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 63.7¢	$696.18	$639.12	-$57.06	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 59¢	$257.87	$255.5	-$2.36	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 42.6¢	$253.4	$186.7	-$66.7	56% 502-393 (895)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 45¢	$101.7	$155.94	+$54.24	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 33.2¢	$109.19	$102.06	-$7.13	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 44¢	$23.57	$36.96	+$13.39	48% 959-1032 (1991)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.33	$3.58	+$1.24	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.7	$1.55	-$1.15	49% 446-472 (918)

RN1

Under

Invested

$696.18

Value

$639.12

PnL

-$57.06

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$257.87

Value

$255.5

PnL

-$2.36

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$253.4

Value

$186.7

PnL

-$66.7

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$101.7

Value

$155.94

PnL

+$54.24

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$109.19

Value

$102.06

PnL

-$7.13

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$23.57

Value

$36.96

PnL

+$13.39

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$2.33

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$1.24

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$1.15

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.