Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 220.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 56¢ · $794 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
$793.94
-$64.17
55.8¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 56.5¢ | $476.86 | $460.16 | -$16.7 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $231.48 | $176.96 | -$54.52 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 34.3¢ | $82.44 | $86.4 | +$3.96 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 39.3¢ | $14.95 | $24.32 | +$9.37 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $28.74 | $19.16 | -$9.58 | 46% 90-106 (196) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $13.79 | $15.48 | +$1.69 | 50% 190-192 (382) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Underavg 61.9¢ | $7.63 | $7.89 | +$0.26 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $2.23 | $3.58 | +$1.34 | 49% 220-228 (448) |
RN1Invested
$476.86
Value
$460.16
PnL
-$16.7
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$231.48
Value
$176.96
PnL
-$54.52
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$82.44
Value
$86.4
PnL
+$3.96
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$14.95
Value
$24.32
PnL
+$9.37
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$28.74
Value
$19.16
PnL
-$9.58
Record
46%
90-106 (196)
Invested
$13.79
Value
$15.48
PnL
+$1.69
Record
50%
190-192 (382)
Invested
$7.63
Value
$7.89
PnL
+$0.26
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$2.23
Value
$3.58
PnL
+$1.34
Record
49%
220-228 (448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.