Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$131.86

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 39.5¢

-18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$474.37

Total Shares1,292

Combined PnL-$150.34

Over3 traders

Total Value$294.26

Total Shares478

Combined PnL+$18.49

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$609.73	$450.89	-$158.84	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 41.7¢	$345.04	$351.49	+$6.45	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.7¢	$243.06	$244.85	+$1.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.5¢	$101.98	$106.64	+$4.66
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$368.48	$271.28	-$97.2	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.6¢	$252	$154.8	-$97.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$116.48	$116.48	+$0
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 56¢	$188.32	$218.46	+$30.14	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 64¢	$157.43	$125.94	-$25.73	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$89.6	$89.6	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$58.55	$36.34	-$25.73
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 42¢	$46.82	$46.82	+$0	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 53¢	$58.08	$28.98	-$11.65	49% 446-472 (918)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$11.87	$14.13	+$4.66	55% 399-332 (731)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$5.52	$9.35	+$3.83	49% 220-228 (448)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$609.73

Value

$450.89

PnL

-$158.84

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$345.04

Value

$351.49

PnL

+$6.45

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Over$243.0641.7¢+$1.79

Under$101.9855.5¢+$4.66

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$368.48

Value

$271.28

PnL

-$97.2

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Invested

$188.32

Value

$218.46

PnL

+$30.14

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$157.43

Value

$125.94

PnL

-$25.73

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Over$89.664¢+$0

Under$58.5558¢-$25.73

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$46.82

Value

$46.82

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$58.08

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$11.65

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.87

Value

$14.13

PnL

+$4.66

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.52

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$3.83

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.