Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 210.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
$2.2K
-$16.01
88.1¢ → 92¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 88.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$119.98 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $60.32 | $65.41 | +$5.09 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 22.3¢ | $156.05 | $52.49 | -$103.56 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 16.2¢ | $56.65 | $21.03 | -$35.62 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 5.1¢ | $10.65 | $12.55 | +$1.9 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $5.24 | $5.83 | +$0.59 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 10.9¢ | $8.85 | $4.46 | -$4.4 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
Invested
$1,954.01
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$119.98
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$60.32
Value
$65.41
PnL
+$5.09
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
RN1CTRInvested
$156.05
Value
$52.49
PnL
-$103.56
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$56.65
Value
$21.03
PnL
-$35.62
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$12.55
PnL
+$1.9
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$5.24
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0.59
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$4.46
PnL
-$4.4
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.