Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 208.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$57.33

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 99.3¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,062

Combined PnL+$11.84

Under5 traders

Total Value$34.63

Total Shares1,178

Combined PnL-$69.18

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 93.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.88	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 8.3¢	$39.4	$23.54	-$15.86	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 7.1¢	$42.12	$9.46	-$32.66	56% 504-395 (899)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 81¢	$4.86	$5.82	+$0.96	61% 900-578 (1478)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$21.63	$0.88	-$20.75	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 8.4¢	$0.62	$0.71	+$0.08	49% 450-474 (924)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.04	$0.06	+$0.02	54% 401-336 (737)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,024.13

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.88

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.4

Value

$23.54

PnL

-$15.86

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.12

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$32.66

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$4.86

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$0.96

Record

61%

900-578 (1478)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.63

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$20.75

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.