Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 202.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 95¢ · $790 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$790.48
$8.87
84¢ → 94.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 81.4¢ | $482.15 | $468.26 | +$31.61 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 88.3¢ | $247.08 | $224.24 | -$22.84 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $45.5 | $45.75 | +$0.25 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $45.59 | $45.59 | -$0 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $2.92 | $3.32 | +$0.4 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $7.92 | $3.32 | -$0.55 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
RN1Invested
$482.15
Value
$468.26
PnL
+$31.61
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$247.08
Value
$224.24
PnL
-$22.84
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$45.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$45.59
Value
$45.59
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$3.32
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$3.32
PnL
-$0.55
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.