Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 198.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$2.1K
$77.55
88.5¢ → 98¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 88.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$147.81 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
 RN1 | Overavg 87.9¢ | $268.85 | $284.58 | +$15.73 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 12.3¢ | $197.78 | $112.19 | -$85.6 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $7.63 | $7.63 | +$0 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $6 | $5.9 | -$0.1 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $0.65 | $0.35 | -$0.3 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$1,579.49
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$147.81
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
RN1Invested
$268.85
Value
$284.58
PnL
+$15.73
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$197.78
Value
$112.19
PnL
-$85.6
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$7.63
Value
$7.63
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$6
Value
$5.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.3
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.