Spread: Suns (-7.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (57%) · Suns at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Suns77¢Clippers23¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$131.3

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 77¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns77%

Clippers23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,741

Combined PnL+$127.93

Clippers3 traders

Total Value$229.44

Total Shares1,011

Combined PnL+$3.37

Suns — 57%Clippers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 78¢	$780	$775	-$5	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Clippersavg 50.2¢	$340.03	$373.18	+$33.15	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 35.9¢	$125.48	$244.9	+$119.42
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 50.2¢	$214.55	$128.28	-$86.28
RN1	Sunsavg 62.1¢	$211	$263.5	+$52.5	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Clippersavg 22¢	$220	$225	+$5	54% 217-188 (405)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 30¢	$60.43	$120.86	+$60.43	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
JU justaluckydude	Sunsavg 50¢	$100	$120	+$20	30% 134-317 (451)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Clippersavg 61¢	$3.48	$2.28	-$1.2	49% 220-228 (448)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clippersavg 48¢	$2.58	$2.15	-$0.43	55% 399-332 (731)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$780

Value

$775

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$340.03

Value

$373.18

PnL

+$33.15

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Suns$125.4835.9¢+$119.42

Clippers$214.5550.2¢-$86.28

RN1

Suns

Invested

$211

Value

$263.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Clippers

Invested

$220

Value

$225

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$60.43

Value

$120.86

PnL

+$60.43

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

justaluckydude

Suns

Invested

$100

Value

$120

PnL

+$20

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.48

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$1.2

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.43

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.