Spread: Suns (-2.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (54%) · Suns at 66¢ · $58K held · ended Nov 11

Suns66¢Clippers34¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.7K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 65.5¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns66%

Clippers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers6 traders

Total Value$29.2K

Total Shares57,899

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Suns7 traders

Total Value$27.3K

Total Shares50,969

Combined PnL-$148.91

Clippers — 46%Suns — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Clippersavg 46.3¢	$26.1K	$28.5K	+$2.4K	42% 574-809 (1383)
HO HomeRunHazard	Sunsavg 53.5¢	$13.7K	$13.4K	-$255.1	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
TM TMingchan	Sunsavg 54¢	$10.8K	$10.9K	+$100	15% 6-35 (41)
VeryLucky888	Sunsavg 53.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$17.99	51% 300-292 (592)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$423	$414	-$9	11% 13-104 (117)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sunsavg 53.2¢	$482.52	$406.96	-$0.64	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 53.2¢	$314.86	$301.93	-$5.55
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.7¢	$100.12	$105.03	+$4.91
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Clippersavg 48.3¢	$384.61	$384.31	-$0.3	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 48.3¢	$272.21	$275.88	+$3.67
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 52.9¢	$112.4	$108.43	-$3.97
RN1	Sunsavg 57.6¢	$278.23	$297.18	+$18.95	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Sunsavg 54¢	$247.49	$249.99	+$2.5	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 54¢	$134.99	$136.24	+$1.25
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 45¢	$112.5	$113.75	+$1.25
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 42.9¢	$199.49	$212.32	+$12.84	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 53.5¢	$185.52	$192.58	+$7.06	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Sunsavg 54¢	$158.14	$159.73	+$1.6	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 54¢	$86.25	$87.05	+$0.8
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 45¢	$71.88	$72.68	+$0.8
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 52.4¢	$75.5	$60.8	-$2.2	49% 444-470 (914)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Clippersavg 50¢	$50	$52.5	+$2.5	56% 488-383 (871)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Sunsavg 54¢	$40.19	$40.56	+$0.37	48% 190-206 (396)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.2	-$0.2	68% 1599-746 (2345)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Clippersavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.28	+$0.02	28% 285-731 (1016)

BreakTheBankCTR

Clippers

Invested

$26,140.86

Value

$28.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

HomeRunHazard

Suns

Invested

$13,685.15

Value

$13.4K

PnL

-$255.1

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

TMingchan

Suns

Invested

$10,800

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

15%

6-35 (41)

VeryLucky888

Suns

Invested

$2,373.03

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$17.99

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Clippers

Invested

$423

Value

$414

PnL

-$9

Record

11%

13-104 (117)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$482.52

Value

$406.96

PnL

-$0.64

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Suns$314.8653.2¢-$5.55

Clippers$100.1246.7¢+$4.91

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$384.61

Value

$384.31

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Clippers$272.2148.3¢+$3.67

Suns$112.452.9¢-$3.97

RN1

Suns

Invested

$278.23

Value

$297.18

PnL

+$18.95

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

GC-PARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$247.49

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$2.5

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Suns$134.9954¢+$1.25

Clippers$112.545¢+$1.25

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$199.49

Value

$212.32

PnL

+$12.84

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$185.52

Value

$192.58

PnL

+$7.06

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

NM-PARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$158.14

Value

$159.73

PnL

+$1.6

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Suns$86.2554¢+$0.8

Clippers$71.8845¢+$0.8

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$75.5

Value

$60.8

PnL

-$2.2

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$50

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

SnakeBall<$100

Suns

Invested

$40.19

Value

$40.56

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

RLWGCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

LimousinCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.