Spread: Suns (-28.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (40%) · Clippers at 92¢ · $578 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
5
Clippers 40%
$578.46
-$1.92
95.7¢ → 91.8¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Clippersavg 97.1¢ | $344.55 | $344.34 | -$0.21 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Clippersavg 93.6¢ | $213.73 | $207.78 | -$5.95 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 6.4¢ | $14.6 | $18.84 | +$4.24 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 3¢ | $6 | $6 | -$0 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 3¢ | $1.5 | $1.5 | -$0 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
Invested
$344.55
Value
$344.34
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$213.73
Value
$207.78
PnL
-$5.95
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$14.6
Value
$18.84
PnL
+$4.24
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$6
Value
$6
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.