Spread: Suns (-24.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (20%) · Clippers at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Suns29¢Clippers71¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$44.77

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns29%

Clippers71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers1 trader

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,184

Combined PnL+$8.16

Suns4 traders

Total Value$308.62

Total Shares1,690

Combined PnL+$36.61

Clippers — 20%Suns — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 86.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$8.16	56% 502-393 (895)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Clippersavg 83.5¢	$1.5K	$892.68	+$260.57	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 13.5¢	$270	$569	+$299
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 83.5¢	$377.55	$323.68	-$38.43
65 6512395314597884CTR	Sunsavg 14.3¢	$86	$111.6	+$25.6	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Sunsavg 18¢	$107.55	$107.85	+$0.3	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1CTR<$100	Sunsavg 15.5¢	$65.88	$76.89	+$11.01	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 19¢	$12.57	$12.28	-$0.3	49% 446-472 (918)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$1,891.92

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$8.16

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$1,482.11

Value

$892.68

PnL

+$260.57

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Suns$27013.5¢+$299

Clippers$377.5583.5¢-$38.43

6512395314597884CTR

Suns

Invested

$86

Value

$111.6

PnL

+$25.6

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Suns

Invested

$107.55

Value

$107.85

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$65.88

Value

$76.89

PnL

+$11.01

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$12.57

Value

$12.28

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.1%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.