Spread: Clippers (-5.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (60%) · Suns at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
5
Suns 60%
$1.4K
$5
73¢ → 93¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Sunsavg 71¢ | $710 | $910 | +$200 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
 RN1 | Sunsavg 80¢ | $215.2 | $190.99 | -$24.21 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Clippersavg 21.7¢ | $81.62 | $109.04 | +$27.42 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Clippersavg 29¢ | $290 | $95 | -$195 | 54% 217-188 (405) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Sunsavg 74¢ | $79.18 | $75.97 | -$3.21 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
Invested
$710
Value
$910
PnL
+$200
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
RN1Invested
$215.2
Value
$190.99
PnL
-$24.21
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$81.62
Value
$109.04
PnL
+$27.42
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$290
Value
$95
PnL
-$195
Record
54%
217-188 (405)
Invested
$79.18
Value
$75.97
PnL
-$3.21
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.