Spread: Clippers (-3.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (57%) · Suns at 95¢ · $978 held · ended Nov 11

Clippers6¢Suns94¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 57%

Total Value

$977.73

Combined PnL

$36.96

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 94.5¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers6%

Suns95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns4 traders

Total Value$724.62

Total Shares993

Combined PnL+$51.91

Clippers3 traders

Total Value$253.11

Total Shares855

Combined PnL-$14.95

Suns — 57%Clippers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 67.7¢	$596.62	$642.87	+$46.25	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Clippersavg 31.1¢	$226.69	$240.32	+$13.63	28% 298-765 (1063)
SE sentrio<$100	Sunsavg 68¢	$46.17	$49.56	+$3.39	35% 266-489 (755)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 68¢	$27.88	$29.93	+$2.05	49% 446-472 (918)
SI Siddhartha1CTR<$100	Clippersavg 31¢	$8.37	$7.29	-$1.08	61% 92-60 (152)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Clippersavg 33¢	$33	$5.5	-$27.5	53% 5552-4936 (10488)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Sunsavg 66¢	$2.04	$2.25	+$0.22	56% 502-393 (895)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$596.62

Value

$642.87

PnL

+$46.25

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

LightParadoxCTR

Clippers

Invested

$226.69

Value

$240.32

PnL

+$13.63

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

sentrio<$100

Suns

Invested

$46.17

Value

$49.56

PnL

+$3.39

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$27.88

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$2.05

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Siddhartha1CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$8.37

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$1.08

Record

61%

92-60 (152)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$33

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$27.5

Record

53%

5552-4936 (10488)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.22

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.