Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$0.01

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 54¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$585.05

Total Shares1,269

Combined PnL+$8.87

Under6 traders

Total Value$882.19

Total Shares1,640

Combined PnL-$8.88

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$556.47	$561.48	+$5.01	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53.9¢	$352.96	$356.55	+$3.59	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
NO NotJump	Underavg 55¢	$279.05	$276.04	-$3.02	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 53.8¢	$383.95	$121.5	-$15.44	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$73.51	$81.33	+$7.81	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
RN1<$100	Underavg 51¢	$37.33	$35.5	-$1.83	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 54¢	$11.27	$11.27	-$0	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$6.12	$9.85	+$3.73	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4	$4.12	+$0.12	38% 1375-2257 (3632)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$556.47

Value

$561.48

PnL

+$5.01

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$352.96

Value

$356.55

PnL

+$3.59

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

NotJump

Under

Invested

$279.05

Value

$276.04

PnL

-$3.02

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$383.95

Value

$121.5

PnL

-$15.44

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$73.51

Value

$81.33

PnL

+$7.81

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$37.33

Value

$35.5

PnL

-$1.83

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$11.27

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.12

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$3.73

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.