Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 43¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$584.72

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 43¢

-21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,441

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,099

Combined PnL-$680.4

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 45¢	$2.1K	$3.2K	+$1.1K	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
YU yuyuvkxDDCTR	Underavg 55¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$522.73	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 46¢	$572.83	$639	+$186.23	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 53.2¢	$776.87	$627.8	-$149.07	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$28.25	$27.24	-$1.01	69% 1738-777 (2515)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 52.9¢	$18.61	$10.89	-$7.71	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$2.58	$2.69	+$0.11	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.3	+$0.25	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.3	+$0.1	38% 1374-2228 (3602)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,073.81

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

yuyuvkxDDCTR

Under

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$522.73

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$572.83

Value

$639

PnL

+$186.23

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$776.87

Value

$627.8

PnL

-$149.07

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.25

Value

$27.24

PnL

-$1.01

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.61

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$7.71

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.