Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 72¢ · $989 held · ended Nov 15

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

Total Value

$989.17

Combined PnL

-$22.53

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 71.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$745.01

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL+$33.89

Under6 traders

Total Value$244.16

Total Shares954

Combined PnL-$56.41

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 78.2¢	$353.62	$323.37	-$30.25	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 54¢	$206.67	$271.73	+$65.06	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 43¢	$240.89	$145.65	-$95.24	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
RN1<$100	Overavg 75.8¢	$88.86	$84.04	-$4.82	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 22¢	$302.93	$73.68	+$47.32	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 56.9¢	$27.51	$31.19	+$3.68	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$17.28	$15.49	-$1.79	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 78.2¢	$16.82	$15.37	-$1.45	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 64.7¢	$8.16	$9.68	+$1.53	49% 486-502 (988)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 76¢	$9.5	$9.63	+$0.12	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$13.5	$7.8	-$5.7	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$1.3	-$1	43% 867-1151 (2018)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$0.23	$0.23	-$0.01	48% 3997-4384 (8381)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$353.62

Value

$323.37

PnL

-$30.25

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$206.67

Value

$271.73

PnL

+$65.06

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$240.89

Value

$145.65

PnL

-$95.24

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$88.86

Value

$84.04

PnL

-$4.82

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$302.93

Value

$73.68

PnL

+$47.32

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$27.51

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$3.68

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.28

Value

$15.49

PnL

-$1.79

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$16.82

Value

$15.37

PnL

-$1.45

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$8.16

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$1.53

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.5

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$5.7

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.