Spread: 76ers (-8.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (60%) · Pacers at 55¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 15

76ers46¢Pacers54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

-$57.8

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers46%

Pacers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,890

Combined PnL-$406.67

Pacers9 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares19,994

Combined PnL+$348.87

76ers — 40%Pacers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pacersavg 49.5¢	$7.1K	$7.4K	+$336.84	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49.5¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$346.64
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46.7¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$9.8
ME MegaMan-.-CTR	76ersavg 50¢	$4.6K	$4.2K	-$410.92	49% 630-647 (1277)
MA MadridTime	Pacersavg 49.9¢	$3.3K	$3.6K	+$308.89	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
73 739633786	Pacersavg 53.9¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$26.83	12% 27-207 (234)
HI hi774c	Pacersavg 49.6¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$4.68	26% 249-694 (943)
FL Flaznorp	Pacersavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.57	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
LI Limousin	Pacersavg 50¢	$322.19	$351.19	+$29	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pacersavg 54¢	$184.78	$186.49	+$1.71	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Pacersavg 49.5¢	$154.67	$161.94	+$7.26	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49.5¢	$79.7	$86.15	+$6.45
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46¢	$74.98	$75.79	+$0.81
FU Fujimi888CTR	76ersavg 46¢	$128.44	$125.65	-$2.79	— 7-9 (16)
QI qinlaobanCTR	76ersavg 50¢	$121.57	$122.79	+$1.22	6% 12-175 (187)
38 38791873984189CTR	76ersavg 47.1¢	$354.27	$105.27	+$4.48	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
LI LightParadox<$100	Pacersavg 49¢	$84.24	$83.38	-$0.86	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
SU suntori<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$47.61	$47.17	-$0.44	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$20.07	$10.58	+$1.31	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.7	+$0	43% 861-1147 (2008)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	76ersavg 45¢	$1.36	$1.4	+$0.05	35% 635-1160 (1795)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$7,112.27

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$336.84

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

Pacers$4,325.4949.5¢+$346.64

76ers$2,786.7846.7¢-$9.8

MegaMan-.-CTR

76ers

Invested

$4,565.83

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$410.92

Record

49%

630-647 (1277)

MadridTime

Pacers

Invested

$3,331.16

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$308.89

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

739633786

Pacers

Invested

$2,529.84

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.83

Record

12%

27-207 (234)

hi774c

Pacers

Invested

$2,508.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$4.68

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

Flaznorp

Pacers

Invested

$1,134.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.57

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Limousin

Pacers

Invested

$322.19

Value

$351.19

PnL

+$29

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pacers

Invested

$184.78

Value

$186.49

PnL

+$1.71

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$154.67

Value

$161.94

PnL

+$7.26

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

Both legs:

Pacers$79.749.5¢+$6.45

76ers$74.9846¢+$0.81

Fujimi888CTR

76ers

Invested

$128.44

Value

$125.65

PnL

-$2.79

Record

—

7-9 (16)

qinlaobanCTR

76ers

Invested

$121.57

Value

$122.79

PnL

+$1.22

Record

12-175 (187)

38791873984189CTR

76ers

Invested

$354.27

Value

$105.27

PnL

+$4.48

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

LightParadox<$100

Pacers

Invested

$84.24

Value

$83.38

PnL

-$0.86

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

suntori<$100

Pacers

Invested

$47.61

Value

$47.17

PnL

-$0.44

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$20.07

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$1.31

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.