Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pacers (63%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-4.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (25%) · 76ers at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

76ers38¢Pacers62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$35.7

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 37.5¢

-38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers38%

Pacers63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers9 traders

Total Value$620.73

Total Shares983

Combined PnL+$127.69

76ers3 traders

Total Value$262.39

Total Shares584

Combined PnL-$91.99

Pacers — 75%76ers — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPacers 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Pacersavg 38.9¢	$208.28	$216.03	+$56.25	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	76ersavg 60¢	$219.6	$168.36	-$51.24	58% 115-85 (200)
VE VenusianARB<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$159.65	$120.57	+$27.09	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 38¢	$43.19	$71.6	+$44.29
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 50¢	$66.17	$48.97	-$17.2
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Pacersavg 39¢	$63.93	$93.44	+$29.51	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
RN1<$100	Pacersavg 50¢	$81.38	$91	+$9.63	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
65 6512395314597884CTR	76ersavg 62¢	$125.63	$87.13	-$38.5	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Pacersavg 49¢	$73.5	$85.5	+$12	48% 643-686 (1329)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pacersavg 44.3¢	$42.06	$54.16	+$12.1	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Pacersavg 51.5¢	$43.48	$48.13	+$4.65	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pacersavg 47.6¢	$41.84	$16.97	-$1.06	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Pacersavg 39¢	$5.69	$8.32	+$2.63	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
SE sentrio<$100	Pacersavg 39¢	$5.18	$7.17	+$1.99	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	76ersavg 61¢	$9.15	$6.9	-$2.25	44% 339-425 (764)

Flaznorp

Pacers

Invested

$208.28

Value

$216.03

PnL

+$56.25

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Zzzz87CTR

76ers

Invested

$219.6

Value

$168.36

PnL

-$51.24

Record

58%

115-85 (200)

VenusianARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$159.65

Value

$120.57

PnL

+$27.09

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Both legs:

Pacers$43.1938¢+$44.29

76ers$66.1750¢-$17.2

HomeRunHazard<$100

Pacers

Invested

$63.93

Value

$93.44

PnL

+$29.51

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

RN1<$100

Pacers

Invested

$81.38

Value

$91

PnL

+$9.63

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

6512395314597884CTR

76ers

Invested

$125.63

Value

$87.13

PnL

-$38.5

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Pacers

Invested

$73.5

Value

$85.5

PnL

+$12

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

38791873984189<$100

Pacers

Invested

$42.06

Value

$54.16

PnL

+$12.1

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Pacers

Invested

$43.48

Value

$48.13

PnL

+$4.65

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Pan9X<$100

Pacers

Invested

$41.84

Value

$16.97

PnL

-$1.06

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

topdogbigboi<$100

Pacers

Invested

$5.69

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$2.63

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

sentrio<$100

Pacers

Invested

$5.18

Value

$7.17

PnL

+$1.99

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$9.15

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$2.25

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPacers 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.